Primeiro, estamos assumindo que os alunos podem escolher outros cursos de Macroeconomia com ênfase em Teoria Monetária. Em outras palavras, estamos oferecendo um curso aplicado em Economia Monetária, sendo menos em Teoria.
O Curso trata de temas atuais em economia monetária. Para tanto, veremos modelos monetários e bancários mais adequados para explicar a recente crise no sistema financeiro internacional. Assim, focaremos em temas selecionados diante da crise mundial iniciada no ano de 2008, que desde então tem mudado radicalmente a economia mundial.
Segundo as diferentes escolas, a crise é devida tanto à inépcia do US FEDERAL RESERVE como à Regulação Indevida do Sistema Financeiro - com o uso abusivo de derivativos espalhando material ativos financeiros tóxicos via securitização de créditos subprime no mercado imobiliário norte-americano. Assim, focaremos nestas possíveis causas da crise.
PROGRAMA
TEMA 1. História Monetária Norte-Americana
Aqui tratamos do Contexto Histórico para o entendimento tanto das Crises de 1929 (Grande Depressão) e de 2008 como da Regulação do Sistema Financeiro (depois da Grande Depressão, foram criados os US FED, instituído a Lei Glass-Steagall Act (modelo de bancos especializados), que foi copiado pela Reforma Bancária de Campos de Bulhões no Brasil, e mais recentemente as medidas pós crise de 2008 com a US Dodd Franklin Act., e a Basiléia III.
FED TIMELINE. SIGNIFICANTS EVENTS in US Money & Banking History.
file:///Users/JosephAAA/Downloads/fed-today_lesson-2.pdf
https://www.federalreserveeducation.org/about-the-fed/history
Friedman, Milton and Anna Jacobson Schwartz. A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960. Princeton University Press, 1963.
Michael D. Bordo, and Hugh Rockoff, "Not Just the Great Contraction: Friedman and Schwartz's A Monetary History of the United States 1867 to 1960," American Economic Review (May 2013), 103#3 pp 61-65.
Bagehot, Walter (1873). Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market (1 ed.). New York: Scribner, Armstong & Co. Retrieved 21 July 2014.
Livro de cabeceira de banqueiros e especuladores como George Soros que quebrou o Banco da Inglaterra num ataque especulativo contra Libra esterlina.
1.1 Fatos Estilizados da Crise
a. Fatos Estilizados: Overbanking Phenomenon. "Bank Value ADDED: USA & Brazil. Evolução dos Sistemas Financeiros nas Crises e nos Períodos de Inflação Alta.
b. Global Financial Stability Report. Diagnósticos Atuais dos Mercados.
A Report by the Monetary and Capital Markets Department on Market
Developments and Issues
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/
TEMA 2. ambos o FED e a Regulação DO SISTEMA FINANCEIRO foram culpados pelas crises de 1929 e 2008?
Quais modelos monetários produzem A não-neutralidade da moeda PARA EXPLICAR A CRISE DE 2008?
QUAL TEM SIDO O PAPEL DO FED desde a crise recente?
2. 1 Funções do Banco
X Freixas, JC Rochet Microeconomics of banking.
2.2 Modelos de Neutralidade e Não neutralidade da Moeda para explicar a crise de 2008.
Lucas, Robert Jr. On welfare costs of inflation. Working Paper. University of Chicago, 1993.
2.3 a REGULAÇÃO DO GLASS STEAGALL (BANCOS ESPECIALIZADOS) FOI adequado
Lucas, Robert Jr. Reflections on the 100th Anniversary of The Federal Reserve ‡
Glass-Steagall: A Requiem†. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 2013, 103(3): 43–47
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.3.43
3. Causas e Consequências da Crise de 2008
The Economist. The origins of the financial crisis. Crash course. http://www.economist.com/news/schoolsbrief/21584534-effects-financial-crisis-are-still-being-felt-five-years-article
Taylor, John B. THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND THE POLICY RESPONSES: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF WHAT WENT WRONG. Working Paper 14631, 2009 http://www.nber.org/papers/w14631
Cochrane, John H. Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic. European Economic Review 55 (2011) 2–30.
Goodfriend, Marvin. Central banking in the credit turmoil: An assessment of Federal Reserve practice. Journal of Monetary Economics. Volume 58, Issue 1, January 2011, Pages 1–12
Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 339-44, May. 2008
Wallison, Peter J. The Causes of the Financial Crisis and its Consequences, June 18, 2010
http://www.ipaa.org/meetings/ppt/2010Midyear/201006Midyear-PeterWallison.pdf
Bianconi, Marcelo, Joe A. Yoshino, Mariana O. Machado de Sousa. BRIC and the U.S. financial crisis: An empirical investigation of stock and bond markets. Emerging Markets Review. 14 (2013) 76–109
Levine, Ross. The Governance of Financial Regulation: Reform Lessons from the Recent Crisis†. International Review of Finance. Special Issue: GOVERNANCE, POLICY AND THE CRISIS: PART I Volume 12, Issue 1, pages 39–56, March 2012
3.1 Novo Papel do FED após a crise de 2008
The interest rate zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policy, including quantitative easing and forward guidance.
Monetary policy yesterday and today; the role of the central bank. credit allocation, financial regulation, credit-spread targeting, quantiative easing..
Cochrane, John. Is QE2 a Savior, Inflator, or a Dud?: Business Class
12 JUNE 3, 2011 https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2011-06-02/is-qe2-a-savior-inflator-or-a-dud-business-class
3.2 Interest rate rules (Inflation Target) and “New Keynesian” Economics
We thought for a long time that interest rate targets lead to unstable price levels. And yet, the Fed does follow an interest rate target, and the price level doesn’t seem to be exploding. McCallum then pointed out that perhaps the price level could be stationary with a reactive interest rate – if the interest rate rises faster than inflation, perhaps inflation could be stabilized. Taylor noticed that a rule in which the interest rate rises more than inflation seems to characterize Fed behavior.
There is a huge literature now on “optimal Taylor rules”. For example, should the Fed react to actual or expected inflation? What happens if the Fed reacts to expected inflation, and expected inflation reacts to the Fed?
Questions: Is there a sensible model out there in which the Fed raises real rates to contain inflation? There are two schizophrenic strands to the literature; in one the Fed raises real interest rates in response to inflation and this action lowers future inflation; in the more popular strand threats of explosion select equilibria. Did the Fed conquer inflation by moving to a Taylor rule with a coefficient greater than one on inflation? Does the Fed in fact move the funds rate more than one for one with inflation -- how will it respond to a replay of 1973?
Clarida, Richard, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler. “Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115 (1), February 2000, pp. 147-180.
Famous for the claim that the Fed switched from “Passive” (coefficient on inflation less than one) to “active” (coefficient larger than one) around 1980, and this stopped inflation. Also, we need to read the theory section to see how this is supposed to work.
Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004, Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches. Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, 36(2)
Maybe the “fact” isn’t even true – you make a lot of excuses for output responses in looking at the inflation response.
Robert King, 2000, ''The New IS-LM Model: Language, Logic, and Limits” Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 86, 45-103. p.75 especially on the question of interest rate rules.
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- Docente: JOE AKIRA YOSHINO